RAST ZNAČAJA JUANA U SVETSKIM FINANSIJSKIM TOKOVIMA: KRITIČNA VAŽNOST GLOBALNE VALUTE ZA STATUS SUPER-SILE
Ključne reči:
Кина, јуан, blockchain, валутна интернационализација, САД, доларApstrakt
Већ годинама кинески приступ интернационализацији националне монете се базира на охрабривању домаћих и страних компанија да користе јуан при трговинским фактурисањима. Поред тога, Кина се све више ослања на off-shore тржишта ради развијања финансијске клијентеле за јуан, док је кинеска централна банка испреговарала бројне валутне своп аранжмане. Јасно је да би Пекинг требало да омогући слободнији приступ страних инвеститора свом финансијском тржишту, истина, уз ризик да би то могло водити до опасног прекомерног задуживања многих предузећа. Као битан елемент интернационализације јуана намеће се 'blockchain' технологија, будући да Пекинг извесно време развија апликације 'blockchain' система. Ако би кинеска дигитална валута била усвојена у више земаља, амерички надзор и регулација глобалног финансијског система бе био пред великим изазовом.
Јасно је да постоји тензија између финансијске либерализације и самог модела раста у Кини, који се добрим делом ослања на државне компаније, које користе субвенционисане кредите. Додатно, Кина мора да поправи финансијску супервизију, ојача корпоративно управљање и настави структурне реформе. Посматрано средњорочно и дугорочно, удео кинеске валуте у међународним финансијским токовима ће се скоро извесно повећавати, што ће довести до значајног смањења интернационалне улоге америчке монете.
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