TRGOVINSKI RAT SAD PROTIV KINE: EKONOMSKI ILI GEOPOLITIČKI KONFLIKT?
Ključne reči:
Трговински рат, царине, технологија, глобални поредак, САД, КинаApstrakt
Трговински рат, чија главна манифестација је подизање америчких царина на кинески увоз, али чији најважнији део је делимична блокада извоза америчких high-tech производа и технологија у Кину, је вероватно последња озбиљна стратегијска акција САД. Евентуални неуспех, или делимични успех, значио би да је технолошки ‘catch-up’ две највеће светске економије неизбежан, и да ће могућност Америке да доминантно обликује глобални поредак у наредном деценијама бити драматично сужена, пре свега у корист Кине. Као сто је Хладни рат, у ствари био рат другом средствима, трговински рат би могао имати исте консеквенце.
Дакле, и ако се постигне свеобухватни споразум, проблеми ће се наставити, јер трговински рат се најмање односи на трговину. Он је манифестација ескалације стратешке конкуренције између две силе. На крају, обе земље су спремне да жртвују своје међусобне економске односе, јер ризици које представљају супротстављени национални интереси (и идеологије) почињу да надјачавају користи од сарадње. Наиме, у САД расте консензус да Кина представља најозбиљнију дугорочну сигурносну претњу с којом се земља суочава, а трговање са геополитичким ривалом је опасан посао.
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